President TrumpDonald John TrumpSanders pledges to support Democratic nominee in 2020 CNN’s Zucker: Fox News is a ‘propaganda outlet’ Warren struggles to gain traction amid Sanders surge MORE will release his budget proposal for fiscal 2020 on Monday.
But the president’s blueprint will be a guide to his agenda under the new divided Congress and a roadmap to the budget fights looming in the coming year and as attention shifts to the next election.
Here are five things to watch for in Trump’s budget blueprint.
A big boost to defense spending
The Trump administration is set to propose another boost to defense spending, a move that will be cheered by Republicans.
But the hike comes through a tactic that Democrats have denounced as a “gimmick” they believe will allow damaging cuts to domestic programs.
The White House will propose increasing defense spending by boosting a Pentagon war fund, known as Overseas Contingency Operations — or OCO.
It’s a way to meet the Republican priority of increasing military spending without raising the caps on spending that were set in 2011. The move is essentially aimed at increasing defense spending without also reaching a deal with Democrats to raise domestic spending.
The White House is touting the plan as a return to fiscal discipline.
But the Democratic House Budget Committee Chairman John YarmuthJohn Allen YarmuthNew debt showdown begins for Trump, Democrats Overnight Health Care: Pelosi asks how to pay for single-payer | Liberal groups want Dems to go bigger on drug prices | Surprise medical bill legislation could come soon Dems struggle to unify after GOP embarrasses them on procedure MORE (D-Ky.) and Armed Services Chairman Adam SmithDavid (Adam) Adam SmithFunding caps, border wall set stage for defense budget battle House Dems demand Pentagon provide details about plans to fund Trump border wall Two lawmakers just debated the merits of Nickelback on the House floor MORE (D-Wash.) denounced a preview of the move as a “gimmick to prop up defense spending” that would “severely shortchange other investments vital to our national and economic security.”
OCO funds have been the subject of controversy in the past. The funds are intended to be used for the country’s wars in the Middle East, but critics, including some Republicans, have derided it as a military slush fund.
Deep cuts to domestic spending
The flip side of the move to increase only defense spending is an expected deep cut to domestic spending.
Returning to the budget caps set in 2011 would mean a cut of $55 billion to domestic spending. And it’s possible the White House could propose additional cuts on top of that.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told CNBC on Friday said to expect a “path towards lower deficits as a share of GDP” and a 5 percent reduction in domestic spending “across the board.”
President Trump has not prioritized deficit reduction so far. But after the signing of a massive tax cut bill and increases in government spending, White House budget director Russ Vought sought to put a focus on the deficit in an op-ed last month.
He pointed out that the national debt is now over $22 trillion.
“Unfortunately, too many lawmakers on Capitol Hill don’t see this as a reason for caution,” he wrote. “They simply cannot admit that Washington has a spending problem and they have not worked with President Trump to address it.”
Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said there needs to be a focus on the debt. But MacGuineas cautioned that the budget should avoid gimmicks and unattainable goals in favor of “savings that are likely to pass and likely to stay in place.”
The border wall
The budget will also be a key signal of how much harder Trump wants to push on his signature priority, the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Trump asking for a significant additional sum for the wall in his budget would be a sign that he intends to keep up his push for congressional funding even as he looks to make an end-run around lawmakers to begin work on the project.
Trump was rebuffed by Congress after he sought $5.7 billion for the wall. The impasse led to the longest government shutdown in recent history.
Trump eventually agreed to sign a spending deal reopening the government but without his wall funding. And he later took the extraordinary step of declaring a national emergency to help him access $8 billion in other funds for the wall.
The move also raised concerns from conservatives over the precedent Trump was establishing with an emergency declaration and from defense hawks who worried about redirecting money intended for military construction
The emergency declaration is already facing a legal challenge in the court and opponents in Congress have the votes to send a resolution blocking the emergency declaration to Trump’s desk. They do not have the two-thirds votes needed though to overturn Trump’s promised veto.
“Despite the American people speaking out loud and clear against the GOP’s health care agenda last November, we may once again see an attempt to gut Americans’ health security through a repeal and replace provision,” House Budget Committee Democrats wrote on Thursday.
Last year, the White House budget endorsed legislation from Sens. Bill CassidyWilliam (Bill) Morgan CassidyOvernight Health Care – Presented by Kidney Care Partners – FDA chief Scott Gottlieb resigns | House Dems to take up drug pricing bills next week | Planned Parenthood, doctors group sue over Trump abortion rule Paul says forced vaccinations is ‘giving up on liberty for a false sense of security’ Top White House official warns hospitals on surprise medical bills MORE (R-La.) and Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamMcConnell works to freeze support for Dem campaign finance effort Trump set for tumultuous ride with Congress GOP-controlled Senate committee to hold March 26 hearing on gun control MORE (R-S.C.) to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and called for cuts to Medicaid by capping payments in the program.
Joel Friedman, a vice president at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said that endorsing ObamaCare repeal in the budget would indicate Trump’s “likely opposition to any Republican efforts to come to terms with the ACA and move on from repeal.”
On a more bipartisan note in health care, the budget will provide Trump a chance to lay out priorities for reducing prescription drug prices, an area where there is potential for him to work together with the Democratic House majority.
Trump and Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D’Alesandro PelosiOcasio-Cortez on moderates: ‘We view cynicism as an intellectually superior attitude’ New Mexico governor signs law requiring background checks for almost all firearm sales Democrats allow anti-Semitism to spread with their weak resolution MORE (D-Calif.) have already voiced optimism about working together on that topic, and the budget gives Trump a chance to put forward some ideas Democrats could accept.
A smaller budget cut that could catch fire
Amid the slew of proposed funding cuts, certain items that are small in the overall scheme of the budget can often elicit outrage.
Last year, for example, Trump’s budget attracted widespread attention when it called for eliminating federal funding for PBS and NPR through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
“Why Are Trump and the G.O.P. So Determined to Kill PBS?” read a headline in Vanity Fair last year.
Advocates for issues across the board will be taking a magnifying glass to Trump’s budget looking for any similar controversial proposals.
Friedman of the CBPP said he is on alert this year for proposed cuts in areas like food stamps and low-income housing assistance that “if implemented would increase poverty and hardship.”